National League Roundup

Here are the brackets I have for the NL for this year’s baseball pool. I find the National League more difficult to handicap than the AL, and it isn’t only because they throw two more teams into the mix. Too many teams in the NL have a mix of mediocre to good talent, so it’s hard to place them. A few middling infielders and outfielders have career years and they can be hitting with the best. Otherwise, they remain mired at or below .500. What to do with that?

The Mets showed themselves to be the class of the league last year, and the Dodgers have added enough talent that these two teams should have the best and second best records in the league.

At the next tier, I have the Phillies, Padres, and Cardinals. While I thought the ‘06 world champ Cardinals were actually a weaker team than St. Louis has fielded recently, the lineup is still potent enough, and Carpenter and the pitching bring enough talent to the mound, that the team will still contend. The Padres led the NL in staff ERA last year, which will keep them in a lot of games and they should win more than they lose, but I don’t think their offense is powerful enough for them to be among the winingest teams.

And the Phillies? What to make of the talent Philadelphia routinely puts on the field? Myers, Garcia, Hamels, and Moyers could keep this team atop the division with the Mets.The infield is among the strongest in baseball, and Burrell adds a lot of power in the outfield — still, we keep waiting for the Phillies to put it all together. Maybe this is the year.

Sixth through ninth: I know people who keep touting the Diamondbacks to contend and be the surprise pick in the west. And Webb is a solid ace. Behind him you have the Big Unit, who turns 44 this September, and has been hot and cold lately, along with the “inning-eating” Livan Hernandez, whose ERA was 4.83 last year. The Diamondbacks have some good talent coming up, but they are not the class of the league or division yet.

Similarly, the Cubs have one of the best lineups in baseball with Soriano, Ramirez, and Lee among others, but the pitching is a shambles. Look for the Cubs to win their share of 10-5 and 8-6 games, and lose as many 5-4 and 4-3 games, kind of like the Tribe over in the AL.

The Braves are rebuilding a contender, and with a rotation led by Smoltz (when is he going to get old?) then Hudson and Hampton, this will be a good team, and if their talent in the field keeps maturing they could surprise some people. Conversely, the Giants have a lot of aging talent in the field mixed with a very good but young rotation. SF has a pitching staff that could be among the league’s best in 2008 to 2010. Unfortunately, Bonds, Vizquel, Durham, and Klesko et al. would have been among the best lineups from 2000 to 2004. Meanwhile, their traitor trainer has followed Ned Colletti to LA. If the trainer can keep their best players on the field (no small task) and their young pitching continues to mature, there is reason for hope in SF — this could be a very good team. But a few key injuries could leave them in the lower half, just as easily.

For tenth through 12th in the league, I have Milwaukee, Houston, and Florida.

The Brewers have been touted as an up and coming team for years. Ben Sheets is a legitimate ace, they’ve added Suppan from the Cardinals, and Prince Fielder is a legitimate slugger. But one of their problems is a lack of guys to slug home. The Brewers’ hitting (.258 as a team) trailed the league average (.265). The team still looks too thin to seriously contend.

The 2005 NL champs, Houston, have lost too much talent on the mound (Clemens and Pettite) and on the field (Bagwell and Tavarez) to contend again; and 2B Biggio turns 42 this year. Even with Ensberg and Berkman, and the addition of Carlos Lee, it’s too much to overcome. Florida surprised a lot of people with their youthful talent last year before they subsided to 78 wins. While still young and talented, the talent is too uneven and they won’t surprise anyone this time. The bullpen and outfield (aside from Willingham) are comparatively weak.

Cincinnati was just under .500 last year and doesn’t look to have improved in the offseason, with what stars they do have (especially Griffey) just getting older. The bullpen is a shambles, and retread Twins Milton and Lohse will not make the relievers’ jobs easier.

Colorado has some good young talent, especially at third and in their outfield, but not enough to seriously contend, unless a number of their starting pitchers emerge with dominant or better than average stuff.

Pittsburgh went 37-35 in the second half last year, so there’s some reason for hope for the young Pirates. Yet they’ve been down for a while (never winning more than 75 games in any of the last five seasons) and even with their young talent (such as Sanchez and Bay) it’s unlikely to be enough to keep them in contention. Still they have some good young arms and if they all come together the Pirates could … keep things interesting for the solid contenders.

Washington: perhaps first in war, I wish first in peace, but most likely last in the National League. After Ryan Zimmerman, there isn’t much to get excited about.

So here is how I have them bracketed:

LAD / NY Mets
St L / Phil / SD
AZ / SF / Chi / Atl
Milw / Hou / Fla
Cin / Colo
Pitt / Wash

They only thing for sure is that some of this will be wrong.