American League predictions

I participate in a baseball pool. We play for “pride units.” The point is to pick how good (or bad) all of the teams in major league baseball will be — two lists for each league. It’s very simple on it’s face — the devil is in detailing in March how a team will perform over the six month season.

Every so often my shrewd judgment is rewarded and I do well in the pool. When that doesn’t happen, of course it’s bad luck or the players’ and managers’ fault.

I’ve handicapped the leagues so far into general brackets, and over the course of the next couple weeks I’ll finalize my picks and put my, err, pride on the line.

I’ve discussed this with a few of you out there, per our chats here’s how the American League shapes up for me.

Atop the AL, as much as I like the four contenders in the AL Central, and as well as they performed last year (three of the six MLB teams with 90 or more wins were in the ALC) I think the depth in the division will work against them, while both the Yankees and Bosox look deep and strong, so I’m probably going with New York and Boston in the top two AL spots.

After that, for 3rd through 6th, I have Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, and probably the Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim (all names they’ve taken without leaving SoCal).

I have to look at the Angels pitching again to see if it measures up, but I think they’ve got the most talent in the AL West, so I’m including them. Their offense with Guerrero, Anderson and Cabrera is powerful enough to keep them over .500

The Chisox, with Konerko, Thome, and Dye have one of the most solid trios of 3-4-5 hitters in MLB. Their starting pitching (which as a group slumped in ‘06 from their championship in ‘05) is still formidable enough to have them contending. Their roster has a lot of decent to good role players, too, such as AJ Pierzinski, Iguchi, and Podsednik. Not guys who’ll take you to the playoffs, but they do their jobs, which you need to contend.

Detroit won the league last year with some good young pitching that will only get better, plus they’ve added Gary Sheffield. Their slugging tailed off from the first half to the second half last year — not sure why. But Sheffield’s bat can perk up any team’s slugging percentage.

My Twins have the stars they’ve lacked in the past and should do well, although a lot rides on a few key players who haven’t proven themselves year in and year out yet. Aside from their ace, the real talent on their pitching staff is also awfully young. As mentioned earlier, they lack a solid veteran number 2 and maybe even number 3 starter. I’m not a big fan of the trio of Silva, Ponson, and Ortiz. It’s entirely likely the pitchers who start for them in AAA (Perkins, Garza, Slowey, and Baker) are more talented than the starters they have behind ace Johan Santana, and will get called up over the season. If any of their young pitchers assert themselves and dominate, the Twins could do very well.

I’d include Cleveland in that group, but GM Shapiro has inexplicably done nothing to improve their pitching. In fact, his recent deals have centered around improving the everyday lineup. It’s kind of amazing — they already had one of the most potent offenses in MLB. If they’d only done a little to bolster the pitching staff, this team could be scary. As it is, I’m including them with Oakland and Toronto as teams likely to finish the year with the 7th through 9th best records in the AL.

The A’s always have talented arms, and if the left side of their infield, Chavez and Crosby, ever live up to their promise they will have some formidable bats. But the rest of the offense is mediocre at best, and the outfield is one of the weakest in the league. They lost their best slugger when Frank Thomas went to the Jays. Losing Kotsay didn’t help the offense either. Piazza will be no replacement for the Big Hurt’s slugging. It will be painful to see former Twin Shannon Stewart play for the A’s — but with the plantar fasciitis problems he’s had in each foot, it could be even more painful for him.

Toronto has several very talented players in Vernon Wells and Troy Glaus, and their is talent in the rotation with Halladay and Burnett, but it’s not deep enoiugh to contend with Boston and NY in the East.

For 10th through 12th I’ve got Baltimore, Seattle, and Texas. All teams with some big holes, especially pitching, and not enough offense to compensate.

In the last two spots Kansas City and Tampa Bay, both trying to rebuild for years now, haven’t pulled together enough talent to escape the cellars in their divisions.

So there are my five brackets for the AL:

NY / Bos
Chi / Det / Minn / LAA
Cle / Oak / Tor
Balt / Sea / Tex
KC / TB

The only thing that’s sure is I’ll be wrong, somewhere.
Hopefully my fellow contestants, with their pride also on the line, will be even more wrong than I am, so I’ll get bragging rights.